Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could drop to $70,000-$75,000 in the coming months.
He links potential price correction to the unchanged political landscape post-Trump election.
Hayes speculates that Democrats could sell Bitcoin holdings in 2028 as political retaliation.
, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, believes Bitcoin could retest levels between $70,000 and $75,000 in the coming months. In a “The Genie” published on February 6, Hayes pointed out that the global realization of America’s largely unchanged political landscape, even after Donald Trump’s election, might trigger a price correction to the levels seen in Q4 2024.
Notably, in October, BTC was trading between $60,000 and $72,000. Soon after, early in November, Trump won the election, building anticipation around a Bitcoin strategic reserve. This optimism sent the cryptocurrency straight above the $100,000 psychological mark in just 40 days.
Despite Bitcoin’s current price trading around $98,700, Hayes’ bearish outlook has raised eyebrows, particularly as the market remains within a period of consolidation.
Uncertain Trajectory Amid Consolidation
Despite reaching two peaks near $108,000 in recent times, Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow 15% price band since mid-November, maintaining a value above $90,000. A recent Bitfinex hints at a potential breakout for Bitcoin in either direction over the next few weeks.
However, not everyone agrees on a potential price breakout in the downward direction after Trump recently an executive order on digital assets. On February 5, renowned crypto analyst Thomas Fahrer that any confirmation of the US government purchasing Bitcoin could trigger an unprecedented price rally, resulting in a $50,000 price surge.
While some market participants anticipate a sharp bullish move, Hayes presents a more cautious stance. He suggested that the potential for a Bitcoin reserve in the US might initially send prices soaring but ultimately pose long-term risks.
Bitcoin as a “Political Weapon”?
Hayes warned that a strategic reserve would be driven more by political motivations than financial benefits. If Democrats regain control in the 2028 election, Hayes speculates they might sell off the Bitcoin holdings as a form of political retaliation against Trump supporters who backed crypto.
BitMEX co-founder explained that if Trump fails to deliver on promises to curb inflation, end conflicts, and stabilize food supplies by 2026, the Democrats might use these economic shortcomings to gain political momentum and punish crypto backers.
“There would be 1 million Bitcoin just sitting there, ready to be sold; it just takes a signature on a piece of paper,” Hayes wrote, noting the vulnerability of such a reserve. He described it as a potential “political weapon.”